Tuesday, December 15, 2009, 8:35PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
Citigroup shares got a very short-lived bump early Thursday on news Saudi Prince Alwaleed plans to up his stake in the beleaguered bank to 5% from 4% currently.
But the pre-market bounce dissipated even before the 9:30 a.m. ET open of regular trading and Citi shares were recently down another 18%.
"Citi trades as if it were going to need some [additional] assistance from the government," says John Roque, managing director and technical analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder.
As discussed here, the government will not let Citigroup fail but that doesn't mean equity holders won't get wiped out in the process if the bank becomes a ward of the state, similar to AIG.
But with Citi shares at a near 14-year low and Citi, JPMorgan and Bank of America having lost over $450 billion in market cap since the 2007 peaks, there has to be some value in the sector, doesn't there?
Roque says otherwise, noting value investors aren't tripping over themselves to buy these "cheap" financials. Even with the S&P Financial SPDR down more than 70% from its peak, the entire sector still has more pain ahead, he says, based on the historical peak-to-trough declines of past market manias, including:
tat guy don't red.....oops! read much!
We are living in a period history will come call THE GREAT RECESSION! Those who will be the wealthy in the next generation are those who can invest today - that group is very small. Reduce your debt and invest if you can... we're in for a long ride.
Use local banks folks. No need to give the arabs more money.
quite a stupid view from John Roque. Each bubble is different, how can you say that an asset class should lose 90% before hitting a bottom? Citi is simply being destroyed by financial markets pirates. Unbelievable that authorities don't stop that!
Have a look at the Dow folks. It was about one thousand in the 1980's then went and hovered around 10,000 for 20 plus years. A 90% decline means back to one thousand. And why not, American industry has gone overseas and all America produces is over priced software - you listening Bill Gates. So when the Dow hits one thousand, things will settle down.
I put all my money in tulips, and bought champagne with the rest. See ya in the railroad yard.
Forced liquidation forces these stocks lower.
This is silly. There is a housing bubble also. Does Roque mean that we will have a 90% decline in value of housing or does he mean we have no housing bubble. Things must be valued on intrinsics and not conforming to a pattern.
And if it goes BK, the peak-to-trough decline will be 100%.
"Each bubble is different, how can you say that an asset class should lose 90% before hitting a bottom?" The psychology is the same in all bubbles. Human nature doesn't change. The asset class is therefore irrelevant.
im sure the experts are suffering as much as everyonr or crying all the way to the bank what do you think????
What about Great Depression? lose 400% or more and get back in 25 years or so :)
I'm loving it. I buy Citi puts, take my 200% in 3 days, and do it all over again.
Yeah, try this. The Dow first closed above 10,000 in April 1999, and didn't hit 12,000 until October 2006. Where did you get 20 years? You need some credtibility in what you say. By the way, if anyone cares to look at technicals, then take a look at the market, or Dow, from 1929 to the present. There are really only 3 periods of true bull markets, the last one from 1982 to 1999, which is a very extended period when the market went from around 2,000 to just over 10,000. We may have 14,000 last October, and that would have been the 4th bull market, but it was short lived and not sustainable. Compare this last bull market with the leveraging we experienced as Americans, both in our banks and in our personal lives. We borrowed to consume!!! That is why we got so high so fast. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Have a look at the Dow folks. It was about one thousand in the 1980's then went and hovered around 10,000 for 20 plus years. A 90% decline means back to one thousand. And why not, American industry has gone overseas and all America produces is over priced software - you listening Bill Gates. So when the Dow hits one thousand, things will settle down.
Until we give the shorts an indefinite vacation, all financial firms will continue to fall..... The SEC said they wanted to help stabilize the banks so they eliminated shrot selling, first for a few weeks and then for about a month. The shorts were happy. They were being given a vacation. they have been shorting these stocks non-stop for a year. What we need is an indefinite ban on shorts that will last until there is real stabilzation...
Looks like an average of 89% peak to trough through the years. If SPDR is down approx. 70 %, we do have a way to go,still, to get to the bottom. Looks like a lot more pain in financials. I know. I dropped a few buks this morning. Thats what I get for holding a stock for more than 6 hours, plus after hours trading, they will butcher you if you take a coffee break. LOLLOLLOL. It really ain't a lot of laughs. JIM HSV ALA
What was the cash flow from Tulip Bulbs? Get relevant.
The Dow first hit 10,000 in April 1999. Where do you get 20 years? You need some credibility. If you want to look at technicals look at the Dow from 1929 to the present. Only 4 true bull markets, the last of which was over the past 3 years, and by the way, the shortest. The last great bull market was from 1982 to 1999, when the market went from 2,000 to over 10,000. That happens to be the same time when we began to leverage ourselves through credit card debt and increasing debt to income. It could be said that this bull market is disguised due to the fact that we borrowed to consume, thereby pushing up earnings and stock prices (P/E and constant growth model to value stocks). The question is, what is an appropriate debt to income level, and where will that leave us in the end? If you look for historical home prices you will find that in 1997 they were at around $150,000. This was the last we had a sustainable debt to income level. So, take that price and adjust it for inflation (you should get around $188,000). Last month's average home sales price was $200,500, so we are close. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Have a look at the Dow folks. It was about one thousand in the 1980's then went and hovered around 10,000 for 20 plus years. A 90% decline means back to one thousand. And why not, American industry has gone overseas and all America produces is over priced software - you listening Bill Gates. So when the Dow hits one thousand, things will settle down.
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John - Thursday November 20, 2008 10:56AM EST
I loved how Roque seems to be quoted as an "expert." Where was he 5 years ago? Bet he is wrong.